A descriptive market note, not investment advice. Onora Capital does not provide financial, legal or tax advice — see our disclaimer.
The off-plan segment in Southern Europe has been the most-watched part of the international real-estate market for several years now. As Onora curates inventory across Spain, Portugal, France and Greece in 2026, four factors stand out — not as a recommendation, but as the context in which our buyers are operating.
1. Climate and connectivity
The Southern European coastlines remain the most accessible warm-weather residential destinations for Northern European buyers. Direct flights from London, Amsterdam and Frankfurt to Málaga, Faro, Nice and Athens are typically under three hours, year-round. The Mediterranean climate moderates the heat that more inland markets experience, which matters increasingly to buyers planning to use a property between May and October.
Sources: Eurostat passenger traffic data, Köppen-Geiger climate classification.
2. Residency-by-investment programmes
Spain, Portugal and Greece all maintain residency programmes tied to qualifying real-estate purchases, though the thresholds and qualifying property types have shifted multiple times since 2023. Portugal narrowed the Golden Visa scope in 2023; Greece raised regional thresholds in 2024. Spain's "Beckham Law" tax regime continues to apply to qualifying inbound residents.
We don't restate the current numbers in editorial — they move too frequently. A tax-and-residency advisor consultation is the standard first step for any purchase tied to a residency claim.
Sources: official programme pages — Portugal AIMA, Greek Enterprise Greece, Spain Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
3. Supply pipeline
Coastal building permits in the prime sub-markets (Marbella-Estepona-Sotogrande in Spain, Lagos-Faro in Portugal, the central Côte d'Azur in France, Mykonos-Paros-Antiparos in Greece) have continued to issue at the slower post-pandemic pace, with land scarcity being the binding constraint in most of these markets rather than developer capital.
This affects how new-build inventory comes to market: project sizes are smaller, units in any one project sell faster, and the gap between off-plan price and completion-stage price has remained meaningful in 2024–2025 according to data published by the Spanish national property register.
Sources: Ministerio de Transportes — Building permits Spain, Notaries' Statistics Portugal.
4. Currency stability
All four markets operate in euros — meaningful for buyers from currency areas with higher volatility, but neutral for Northern European buyers who already transact in EUR. We mention it because it materially changes the calculus for buyers from Switzerland, the UK and beyond, who have historically been a significant cohort in Southern European holiday-home demand.
What we're not saying
We are not saying off-plan is a good or bad place to put capital. We are not projecting yields. We are not naming "the best" market. Every buyer's situation is different, and our role is to introduce buyers to vetted developers — not to recommend properties.
If you are exploring the segment, the right first steps are: a tax-and-residency advisor for your situation, an inspection of comparable inventory, and a clear-eyed read of the documentation behind whichever project catches your eye.